When choosing a great neighbourhood to buy either a family home or investment property, safety is a prime consideration for most Buyers.
In this article, current crime statistics from the Edmonton Police Service (posted December 7, 2019) were analyzed by Kelly Grant to generate both the safest 30+ and the most dangerous 30+ out of 271 total neighbourhoods across the City of Edmonton.
{Definition: a “crime” used for this analysis is presumed to include all recorded citizen reports of the following: assault; break and enter; homicide; robbery; sexual assault; theft of vehicle; unlawful vehicle entry; or theft over $5000.}
See the formula below that was used in this analysis to generate neighbourhood crime values for each neighbourhood:
{3-Year Crime Value for Neighbourhood (i) [3YR-CVN(i)]} = {[2019 Total Neighbourhood (i) Crime Statistic * 50%] +
[2018 Total Neighbourhood (i) Crime Statistic * 30%] + [2017 Total Neighbourhood (i) Crime Statistic * 20%]}
With this formula, the rankings generated account for a neighbourhood’s performance over the past three years (i.e. valuing trend) while placing highest importance for the current year.
Congratulations to the top 30 (and ties) City of Edmonton neighbourhoods with the very best crime statistics records:
Gold Medal (safest 8 areas with 3-yr. crime values between 0.0 to 9.0):
(1). Hays Ridge; (2). Ogilvie Ridge; (3). Quesnell Heights; (4). Graydon Hill;
(5). Stewart Greens; (6). Blackburne; (7). Blackmud Creek; and (8). Wedgewood Heights
Silver Medal (next safest areas with 3-yr. crime values between 9.0 to 13.0):
(9). Henderson Estates; (10). Donsdale; (11). Carter Crest; (12). Desrochers;
(13). Dechene; (14). Paisley; (15). Cavanagh; and (16). Grandview Heights
Bronze Medal (rounding out 17th to 30th and ties safest areas with 3-yr. crime values between 13.0 to 20.0):
(17). Hawks Ridge; (18). Argyll; (19). Richford; (20). Rio Terrace; (21). Falconer Heights;
(22). Cameron Heights; (23). Brookside; (24). Bulyea Heights; (25). Ebbers; (26). Potter Greens;
(27). Heritage Valley; (28). Westridge; (29). Rhatigan Ridge; (30). Hodgson; (31). Keswick; and
(32). Breckenridge Greens
Conversely, much improvement is required for City of Edmonton neighbourhoods in the bottom 30 (and ties) worst crime statistics:
Bottom 8 (most dangerous areas with 3-yr. crime values between 400 to 1300):
(271). Downtown; (270). Oliver; (269). Central McDougall; (268). McCauley;
(267). Alberta Avenue; (266). Boyle Street; (265). Strathcona; and (264). Queen Mary Park
Bottom 9-16 (next least safe with 3 yr. crime values between 250 to 400):
(263). Eastwood; (262). Queen Alexandra; (261). Garneau; (260). Belvedere;
(259). Inglewood; (258). Parkdale; (257). Spruce Avenue; and (256). Westmount
Bottom 17-30 & ties (next least safe category with 3 yr. crime values between 180 to 250):
(255). Empire Park; (254). Killarney; (253). Westwood; (252). Britannia Youngstown;
(251). Bonnie Doon; (250). Montrose; (249). Summerlea; (248). Calder; (247). Ritchie;
(246). Canora; (245). Clareview Town Centre; (244). Glenwood; (243). Summerside; and (242). Balwin
To improve safety of the bottom 30 neighbourhoods and help bring them up to an acceptable standard experienced by most other City of Edmonton neighbourhoods, the community residents are encouraged to make phone calls and write letters to lobby City Council (and the Edmonton Police Service) to take strong improvement measures such as follows:
(a). Increase the volume of police officers driving and walking in the neighbourhood.
(b). Construct community police stations within the top 30 high-risk neighbourhoods.
(c). Implement proactive policing including officers engaged in ‘stop and frisk’ of known offenders who have a history of causing trouble / committing violent crimes.
(d). Install more police video cameras in secluded locations to increase the chance of catching repeat offenders and reducing likelihood that criminals escape justice.
(e). Write letters to City, provincial, and federal politicians, demanding to increase the punishment for repeat criminal offenders that help deter against violent crimes.
Secondly, when analyzing Edmonton by dividing the City into eight major sections, below are the rankings in order of the very best to the very worst 3-year crime statistics:
Gold Medal (ranked #1 as Edmonton’s safest section): Southwest Edmonton
Silver Medal (2nd place Section): South Edmonton Anthony Henday
Bronze Medal (3rd place Section): West Edmonton
Other: Southeast Edmonton (4th); Millwoods (5th); and Northeast Edmonton (6th)
Least Safe Sections: Northwest Edmonton (7th); and Central Edmonton (Last – 8th)
Next, what factors help to make safe neighbourhoods vs. those more dangerous? While the individual factors below are not ‘silver bullets’, in combination are highly predictable of a given neighbourhood’s crime statistics and overall safety:
(a). As the population volume in a given neighbourhood decreases, on average the overall safety (and associated crime statistics) will improve.
(b). As the population space (i.e. sq. m. land per person) in a given neighborhood increases, on average overall safety (and associated crime statistics) will improve.
(c). As the % property ownership increases and the % tenant occupancy decreases, on average the overall safety (and associated crime statistics) will improve.
(d). As the property values in a given neighbourhood increases, on average overall safety (and associated crime statistics) will improve.
(e). As the average year built of properties in an area approaches brand new (built 2019), on average the overall safety (and associated crime statistics) will improve.
What the above means is as follows: if residents see municipal development plans that (a). will increase the volume of people in the neighbourhood; (b). will increase the density of people in the neighbourhood (i.e. less space for everyone); (c). will decrease the % owners and increase the % renters; then residents are encouraged to voice their concerns to the municipality because there is a high likelihood that both their neighbourhood crime statistics will get worse and their property values will decrease.
To enhance personal safety and protection of property, regardless of the quality of neighbourhood one chooses to reside, recreate, or work in, below are some very good individual safety advice tips to act upon:
(1). Hire a reputable security company to install door and window sensors; motion alarms; break glass sensors; flood sensors; alarm stickers; and video surveillance.
(2). Hire a quality locksmith to install heavy duty and high-quality deadbolt door locks (and padlocks).
(3). Hire an electrician to install motion sensor lights to automatically illuminate motioned areas at night.
(4). Develop good habits to carry or store in your vehicle an emergency cell phone; flashlight; personal safety alarm; reflective gear; first-aid kit; and fire extinguisher.
(5). Avoid unnecessarily travelling or walking around after dark if it can be avoided.
(6). If noticing criminal or suspicious activity, call the police immediately so they can proceed to investigate. Remember that many criminals are repeat offenders so stopping criminal activity now will result in future neighbourhood dividends.
(7). If you are aware or suspicious of a friend, family member, co-worker, etc. who may be engaging in criminal activity, contact the Police immediately to report.
(8). The more that items (1) through (7) above are practiced in a given neighbourhood, the better the overall neighbourhood safety and crime statistics will keep improving.
(9). Always retain adequate personal and property insurance to protect against possible vandalism, theft, etc.
(10). Hire a quality REALTOR® when buying any property, but most especially when viewing and purchasing in new neighbourhoods which are unfamiliar.
In summary, when Buyers are buying a family home or investment property and are comparing one neighbourhood with another, in addition to reviewing past sales and understanding market trends, it is important to ask your REALTOR® for opinions on the reputation that a particular area may be to live in, relative to other neighbourhoods, for safety and quality of life. It is also wise to check out neighbourhood crime statistics as a good indicator to help making better buying decisions.
[Article is ©2019 (past ©2009) by Kelly Grant, REALTOR® at MaxWell POLARIS in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada]
Disclaimer: for readers not represented by a REALTOR®, to obtain more information on this topic and / or if you will be selling or buying in the Greater Edmonton Area, call Kelly at 780-414-6100; text to 780-717-9290; or email SOLD@KellyGrant.ca to schedule a confidential appointment.
P.S. Note: there are several key assumptions that were made when assessing the validity of the Edmonton Police Service crime statistics data including but not limited to the following factors:
(a). All people who have been inflicted by property crime have chosen to file a report with the Police (it is expected that in reality this may likely not be the case, but it is assumed the random difference comparison between neighbourhoods for non-reporting may very often be negligible).
(b). All neighbourhoods are the same size and density (again, this is not the case, and in fact some neighbourhoods such as Downtown and Oliver are several magnitudes denser than most other neighbourhoods so a better crime statistic would be ‘reported case per neighbourhood resident per year’ that would take into account the differing numbers of residents when comparing neighbourhoods – unfortunately this statistic is not available in the Neighbourhood Crime Statistics Report prepared by the Edmonton Police Service on behalf of the City of Edmonton).
(c). Industrial areas without residences (i.e. non-neighbourhoods) were omitted for this analysis.
(d). For the purpose of this analysis, all violent crimes, robbery, and property crimes were all treated equal however depending on the situation some crimes are definitely more serious than others and for a true comparison these differences would need to be weighted accordingly.
(e). The variance from the previous two years is of diminishing importance compared to the most recent year. If someone is buying a property at the current time, it is assumed the most current year’s statistics are most relevant because it indicates what is happening in the neighbourhood right now compared to other neighbourhoods. Note neighbourhoods will improve or worsen as time progresses and only by analyzing trends over a longer timeframe (e.g. five years, ten years, or longer) can any conclusions or extrapolation be drawn as to a likely forecast of future behaviour.
