Consulting a REALTOR® to review past sales is critical for Buyers and Sellers to making informed decisions. Property value assessments can also be a useful source when strategically deciding what neighbourhoods are best to buy either a family home or investment property. Looking at the bigger picture: which City of Edmonton Neighbourhoods currently have the highest and lowest average and total property value assessments? Does the City of Edmonton have residential neighbourhoods with a combined estimated property assessment worth of over $1B? If so, how many neighbourhoods currently 'break the $1B barrier'?
In this report, I have analyzed the City of Edmonton's 2019 Assessment Change Reports for both Residential, Detached, & Single-Family Homes; and Condominiums. A grand total of 269 different residential neighbourhoods were assessed by the City in these 'raw data reports'.
Note 259 neighbourhoods containing houses were analyzed along with a varied set of 209 neighbourhoods containing condos. Most neighbourhoods in Edmonton contained both houses and condos but several contain only one or the other.
(a). Edmonton residential neighborhoods without houses – 10 total: Abbottsfield; Baranow; Callingwood South; Downtown; Heritage Valley Town Centre; Millwoods Town Centre; Pembina; River Valley Hermitage; Tawa; and Terra Losa. (269 - 10 = 259)
(b). Edmonton residential neighborhoods with only houses (no condos) – 60 total. (269 - 60 = 209)
The analysis yielded many interesting results and conclusions that answer the following important questions:
(A). Total Volume Analysis (current 2019):
(A-1). What is the total volume of residential, detached, and single-family homes in Edmonton?
Answer: 194,857
(A-2). What is the total volume of residential condominiums in Edmonton?
Answer: 91,863
(A-3). What is the total volume of residential properties in Edmonton (i.e. not including commercial: industrial, retail, office, institutional; or Government, etc.?)
Answer: 194,857 + 91,863 = 286,720
(A-4). What are the top 10 (lower congestion / smaller volume) and bottom 10 (higher congestion / larger volume) ranked communities in Edmonton for total combined volume of residential, detached, single-family, and condominiums?
(a). Answer – Top 10 (lower congestion / smaller volume) Edmonton communities:
(1). Kinglet Gardens; (2). River Valley Hermitage; (3). The Uplands; (4). Riverview Area; (5). Quesnell Heights, (6). Hays Ridge Area; (7). Graydon Hill; (8). Cavanagh; (9). Virginia Park; and (10). Ebbers.
(b). Answer – Bottom 10 (higher congestion / larger volume) Edmonton communities:
(269). Oliver; (268). Downtown; (267). Summerside; (266). Rutherford; (265). The Hamptons; (264). South Terwillegar; (263). Windermere; (262). Strathcona; (261). Walker; and (260). Westmount.
(B). Median Property Value Assessments Analysis (current 2019):
(B-1). What is the average median property value assessment of residential, detached, and single-family homes in Edmonton?
Answer: $417,321.93
(B-2). What are the top 10 and bottom 10 ranked communities in Edmonton for average median property value assessment of residential, detached, single-family?
(a). Answer – Top 10 Edmonton communities:
(1). Westbrook Estate ($966,250); (2). Hays Ridge Area ($919,000); (3). Windsor Park ($915,500); (4). Riverview Area ($828,500); (5). Grandview Heights ($798,500); (6). Magrath Heights ($751,000); (7). MacTaggart ($743,500); (8). Quesnell Heights ($735,500); (9). Glenora ($727,250); and (10). Rural NE South Sturgeon ($715,000).
(b). Answer – Bottom 10 Edmonton communities:
(259). Parkdale ($223,500); (258). Alberta Avenue ($226,000); (257). McCauley ($235,000); (256). Eastwood ($241,000); (255). Montrose ($241,500); (254). Delton ($260,000); (253). Calder ($266,000); (252). Beacon Heights ($266,500); (251). Westwood ($285,000); and (250). both Belvedere and Central McDougall ($286,750).
(B-3). What is the average median property value assessment of residential condos in Edmonton?
Answer: $200,709.86
(B-4). What are the top 10 and bottom 10 ranked communities in Edmonton for average median property value assessment of condominiums?
(a). Answer – Top 10 Edmonton communities:
(1). Oleskiw ($581,000); (2). Potter Greens ($446,000); (3). Belgravia ($399,500); (4). Allendale ($383,000); (5). Bulyea Heights ($376,750); (6). Falconer Heights ($362,500); (7). Ogilvie Ridge ($359,500); (8). Dechene ($341,500); (9). Webber Greens ($339,500); and (10). Cloverdale ($332,000).
(b). Answer – Bottom 10 Edmonton communities:
(209). Beacon Heights ($63,750); (208). West Jasper Place ($66,500); (207). Sherwood ($76,500); (206). Ottewell ($77,500); (205). Balwin ($78,000); (204). Eastwood ($78,500); (203). Elmwood Park ($81,250); (202). Spruce Avenue ($85,000); (201). Britannia Youngstown ($86,500); and (200). Terrace Heights ($89,500).
(B-5). What is the average hybrid median property value assessment of all residential properties combined in Edmonton?
Answer: $347,921.00
(B-6). What is the average % change in median property value assessment for all residential, attached, and single-family properties in Edmonton from 2018 to 2019?
Answer: -0.57%
(B-7). What are the top 10 and bottom 10 ranked communities in Edmonton for average % change in median property value assessment for residential, attached, and single-family properties from 2018 to 2019?
(a). Answer – Top 10 Edmonton communities:
(1). Lansdowne (+7.5%); (2). Belgravia (+6.3%); (3). Windsor Park (+6.2%); (4). Skyrattler (+6.1%); (5). Malmo Plains (+5.8%); (6). Riverview Area (+5.8%); (7). McQueen (+5.7%); (8). Queen Mary Park (+4.1%); (9). Hays Ridge Area (+4.0%); and (10). Empire Park (+4.0%).
(b). Answer – Bottom 10 Edmonton communities:
(259). Kinglet Gardens (-8.1%); (258). Rundle Heights (-6.7%); (257). Boyle Street (-6.4%); (256). Cromdale (-4.5%); (255). Lauderdale (-4.5%); (254). The Uplands (-4.0%); (253). Virginia Park (-3.9%); (252). Kensington (-3.7%); (251). Bannerman (-3.6%); and (250). Kernohan (-3.5%).
(B-8). What is the average % change in median property value assessment for all condominium properties from 2018 to 2019?
Answer: -4.77%
(B-9). What are the top 10 and bottom 10 ranked communities in Edmonton for average % change in median property value assessment for condominium properties from 2018 to 2019?
(a). Answer – Top 10 Edmonton communities:
(1). Ogilvie Ridge (+1.8%); (2). Paisley (+0.9%); (3). Webber Greens (+0.9%); (4). Rundle Heights (+0.8%); (5). Albany (+0.6%); (6). Glenora (+0.6%); (7). Lago Lindo (+0.3%); (8). Graydon Hill (+0.1%); (9). Jamieson Place (0.0%); and (10). Cy Becker (-0.3%).
(b). Answer – Bottom 10 Edmonton communities:
(209). Ottewell (-24.4%); (208). Fraser (-24.3%); (207). Aspen Gardens (-17.8%); (206). Patricia Heights (-16.3%); (205). Balwin (-10.8%); (204). Wild Rose (-10.5%); (203). Matt Berry (-10.4%); (202). Rideau Park (-10.4%); (201). Belvedere (-10.3%); and (200). Ozerna (-10.2%).
(B-10). What is the average $ change in median property value assessment for all residential, attached, and single-family properties in Edmonton from 2018 to 2019?
Answer: [Average 2019 median property value assessment (residential, attached, and single-family properties) in Edmonton] = [Average 2018 median property value assessment (residential, attached, and single-family properties)] - $1,948
(B-11). What are the top 10 and bottom 10 ranked communities in Edmonton for average $ change in median property value assessment for residential, attached, and single-family properties from 2018 to 2019?
(a). Answer – Top 10 Edmonton communities:
(1). Windsor Park (+$56,761); (2). Riverview Area (+$48,053); (3). Lansdowne (+$47,663); (4). Belgravia (+$44,620); (5). Hays Ridge Area (+$36,760); (6). Skyrattler (+$28,914); (7). Westbrook Estate (+$28,021); (8). Malmo Plains (+$26,564); (9). McQueen (+$22,344); and (10). Quesnell Heights (+$22,065).
(b). Answer – Bottom 10 Edmonton communities:
(259). Kinglet Gardens (-$48,337); (258). Rundle Heights (-$21,574); (257). Oleskiw (-$21,384); (256). The Uplands (-$19,550); (255). Haddow (-$19,335); (254). Boyle Street (-$18,720); (253). Donsdale (-$18,664); (252). Cromdale (-$18,518); (251). Henderson Estates (-$17,726); and (250). Falconer Heights (-$17,705).
(B-12). What is the average $ change in median property value assessment for all condominium properties in the City of Edmonton from 2018 to 2019?
Answer: [Average 2019 median property value assessment (condominiums only)] = [Average 2018 median property value assessment (condominiums only)] - $8536
(B-13). What are the top 10 and bottom 10 ranked communities in Edmonton for average $ change in median property value assessment for condominium properties from 2018 to 2019?
(a). Answer – Top 10 Edmonton communities:
(1). Ogilvie Ridge (+$6,615); (2). Webber Greens (+$3,022); (3). Paisley (+$2,484); (4). Albany (+$1,127); (5). Rundle Heights (+$984); (6). Glenora (+$806); (7). Lago Lindo (+$489); (8). Graydon Hill (+$239); (9). Jamieson Place (+/-$0); and (10). Prince Rupert (-$495).
(b). Answer – Bottom 10 Edmonton communities:
(209). Aspen Gardens (-$26,700); (208). Bonnie Doon (-$23,390); (207). Fraser (-$22,253); (206). Patricia Heights (-$20,808); (205). Rideau Park (-$20,441); (204). Blackburne (-$20,336); (203). Oxford (-$20,213); (202). Matt Berry (-19,185); (201). Ottewell (-$18,902); and (200). Falconer Heights (-$18,560).
(C). Total Neighborhood Value Assessments Analysis (current 2019):
(C-1). What is the total assessed value of residential real estate in Edmonton (including residential, attached, single-family, and condominiums combined)?
Answer: $99.76 Billion Dollars (Rounded up to approximately $100 Billion Dollars)
(C-2). What are the top 10 and bottom 10 ranked communities in Edmonton for total neighborhood value of residential real estate (including residential, attached, single-family, and condominiums combined)?
(a). Answer – Top 10 Edmonton communities:
(1). Summerside ($1.74B); (2). Oliver ($1.58B); (3). Windermere ($1.56B); (4). Rutherford ($1.26B); (5). The Hamptons ($1.26B); (6). Downtown ($1.23B); (7). Twin Brooks ($1.04B); (8). South Terwillegar ($1.02B); (9). Walker ($0.94B); and (10). Strathcona ($0.91B).
(b). Answer – Bottom 10 Edmonton communities:
(269). River Valley Hermitage ($11.0M); (268). Kinglet Gardens ($32.2M); (267). The Uplands ($37.1M); (266). Cavanagh ($53.8M); (265). Abbottsfield ($56.9M); (264). Heritage Valley Town Centre Area ($57.0M); (263). Ebbers ($59.5M); (262). Graydon Hill ($60.1M); (261). Virginia Park ($66.5M); and (260). Pembina ($74.1M)
(C-3). Presuming the City of Edmonton 2019 Mill Rate is approximately 0.0090806 (including Municipal and Education combined), what is the projected overall property tax income from the City of Edmonton residential land owners for 2019?
Answer: 0.0090806 * $99,755,908,500 = $905,843,502 (rounded to about $906M)
Note: the above tax income estimate pertains to residential property taxes only and does not include commercial property taxes, User fees, violation levies, etc.
In summary, Edmonton currently has eight neighborhoods worth over $1B each: (1). Summerside ($1.74B); (2). Oliver ($1.58B); (3). Windermere ($1.56B); (4). Rutherford ($1.26B); (5). The Hamptons ($1.26B); (6). Downtown ($1.23B); (7). Twin Brooks ($1.04B); and (8). South Terwillegar ($1.02B). The recent economic downtown in Edmonton is due to many factors including: (a). the highly ill-advised Federal Government Mortgage Stress Test; (b). increased energy sector constraints; (c). combined with better economic opportunities in the United States, creating population outflow and reduced business investment. This has caused 2019 property values to drop across most of Edmonton – about $1948 (on average) per property for residential, attached, and single-family and about $8536 (on average) per property for condominiums. If and when economic factors improve in 2020, property values are expected to rebound across Edmonton.
Note several assumptions were made when assessing the validity of property value assessments data including but not limited to the following:
(a). The property value assessments provided by the City of Edmonton are assumed to be accurate enough for the purposes of this analysis. This is a big assumption because the City assessment personnel have not been inside the vast majority of properties (i.e. value impacts for interior renovations or lack thereof are completely omitted from assessments) and assessment information can often be outdated by as much as six months or a year. The potential error between the City assessment and what the property would sell in today’s market in many cases can be out by tens of thousands of dollars or higher in high value neighborhoods. For the purposes of this analysis, because entire neighborhoods have been compared relative to one another rather than on a property by property basis, it has been deemed these City of Edmonton assessment errors to be negligible. Note however that when property owners want to ascertain the potential value of worth of a particular property in today’s market, they are advised to seek the advice and consultation of a licensed REALTOR®. Past sales change on a weekly basis with extra factors REALTORS® take in to account to evaluate properties that City assessment personnel do not.
(b). Although assessment data is not deemed to be reliable on an individual property basis when comparing the current market value, for this analysis it was deemed that the City of Edmonton assessment information is reliable enough when comparing property value assessments vs. the past year’s sales data, noting however that if only five percent or less of properties within a given neighborhood are sold and bought, this could skew the data since in any given year perhaps only the best or only the worst houses in a given neighborhood will have been put up for sale.
(c). Industrial and commercial (office, retail, institutional) areas without residences were omitted for this analysis.
(d). The variance from the previous year is presumed not important compared to the most recent year. If someone is buying a property today, the most current year’s statistics for a neighbourhood, relative to the current statistics for other neighbourhoods being compared with, is deemed to be most relevant because it indicates the value now and not what the value used to be. Neighbourhoods will definitely improve or worsen as time progresses due to a number of factors including but not limited to: migration and turnover trends; redevelopment; rezoning; etc. and only by analyzing trends over a longer timeframe (e.g. five years, ten years, or longer) can any sort of conclusions or extrapolation be drawn as to what may happen in the future.
(e). Although higher property taxes are an unfortunate consequence of higher property value assessments, it is advised that property owners speak with their REALTOR®; lawyer; and / or municipality before attempting to appeal an assessment in attempts to get it lowered because: (i). The odds of success to lower an assessment usually costs more time, effort, and expense than it is worth; (ii). The assessment may not go down that much to make any difference; (iii). The City makes a new assessment each year so winning one year may or may not have any effect on the next year; (iv). Taxes are based on a mill rate because the City must collect enough taxes to pay for all of its bills so even if the assessment drops it is still possible for taxes to go higher; (v). A lower assessment may affect potential future resale value; and (vi). Edmonton maintains low property taxes compared to many other municipalities.
(f). When deciding between properties or between neighbourhoods to buy a family home or investment property, the reader is encouraged to consult a REALTOR® for opinions and statistics on how high or how low average property value assessments and recent past sales are relative to other neighbourhoods. * Remember: for future resale potential (as a general rule): it is usually better to buy a worse property in a better neighbourhood than it is to buy a better house in a worse neighbourhood.
Article written and ©2019 (first edition ©2009) by Kelly Grant, REALTOR® at MaxWell POLARIS in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Disclaimer: for those readers not represented by another REALTOR®, to obtain more information on this topic and / or for scheduling an appointment for selling or buying in the Greater Edmonton Area, contact Kelly by phone at 780-414-6100; by text at 780-717-9290; or by email SOLD@KellyGrant.ca.
